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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 8

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 9-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.20 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 8, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP