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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Monday 2023-09-11 · 20:15 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

BUF
51.0%
NYJ
49.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (NYJ): -0.038 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 23
–
NYJ 21
Projected margin: BUF by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

BUF

No players on the report.

NYJ

Mekhi Becton T Questionable Knee
Duane Brown T Questionable Shoulder
Breece Hall RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 16
–
NYJ 22

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:09 FG BUF (3:09) 2-T.Bass 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 10:39 FG NYJ (10:39) 9-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. BUF 3 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 04:51 TD BUF (4:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 00:20 FG BUF (:20) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 13 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 09:03 FG NYJ (9:03) 9-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. BUF 13 – NYJ 6
  • Q4 04:58 TD NYJ (4:58) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 17-G.Wilson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – NYJ 12
  • Q4 01:51 FG NYJ (1:51) 9-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. BUF-23-M.Hyde was injured during the play. BUF 13 – NYJ 16
  • Q4 00:06 FG BUF (:06) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 16 – NYJ 16
  • Q5 09:21 TD NYJ (9:21) 8-S.Martin punts 42 yards to NYJ 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 82-X.Gipson for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – NYJ 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:37) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to NYJ 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:33) 5-T.Morstead punts 31 yards to BUF 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 90%

    (3:09) 2-T.Bass 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (10:39) 9-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (:20) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 87%

    (9:03) 9-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:21) 5-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to BUF 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Harty ran ob at BUF 15 for 4 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (:42) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NYJ 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at NYJ 25 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (14:19) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 93%

    (2:50) 2-Z.Wilson up the middle to BUF 16 for 2 yards (90-S.Lawson; 43-T.Bernard).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (1:51) 9-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. BUF-23-M.Hyde was injured during the play.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 76%

    (:06) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.