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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 25

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 9-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.20 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 35, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model