Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 69

New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 13

(14:19) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
53% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model