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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 12

New York Jets 13 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 9-G.Zuerlein 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. BUF-23-M.Hyde was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.32 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model