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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 32

Buffalo Bills 13 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(:06) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.49 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model