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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 38

Dallas Cowboys 16 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 3-B.Cooks to NYG 32 for 6 yards (37-T.Hawkins).

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.84 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT +0.43 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model