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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2023-09-10 · 20:20 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

DAL
53.9%
NYG
46.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.146 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 25
–
NYG 23
Projected margin: DAL by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

DAL

Tyler Smith T Doubtful Hamstring
Donovan Wilson S Doubtful Calf
Malik Hooker S Questionable Illness
Sam Williams DE Questionable Foot
Tyron Smith T Questionable Ankle

NYG

Cordale Flott CB Doubtful Hamstring
Gervarrius Owens S Doubtful Hamstring
Wan'Dale Robinson WR Doubtful Knee
Cam Brown LB Questionable Ankle
D.J. Davidson DT Questionable Knee
Darren Waller TE Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 40
–
NYG 0

Prediction missed by 38 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:14 TD DAL (8:14) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (30-J.Thomas), Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan, RECOVERED by DAL-19-N.Igbinoghene at DAL 42. 19-N.Igbinoghene for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – NYG 0
  • Q1 03:24 FG DAL (3:24) 17-B.Aubrey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 9 – NYG 0
  • Q1 02:30 TD DAL (2:30) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left intended for 26-S.Barkley INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland (7-T.Diggs) at NYG 22. 26-D.Bland for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 15 – NYG 0
  • Q2 11:00 FG DAL (11:00) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 19 – NYG 0
  • Q2 08:07 TD DAL (8:07) 20-T.Pollard right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 25 – NYG 0
  • Q3 10:05 TD DAL (10:05) 20-T.Pollard right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 32 – NYG 0
  • Q4 11:37 TD DAL (11:37) 9-K.Turpin left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 39 – NYG 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:18) 6-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to DAL 26, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-44-N.McCloud.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%

    (3:24) 17-B.Aubrey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:32) 6-J.Gillan punts 62 yards to DAL 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 20 for 10 yards (41-M.McFadden).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 63%

    (13:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 3-B.Cooks to NYG 32 for 6 yards (37-T.Hawkins).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (11:00) 17-B.Aubrey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 38%

    (4:31) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 12-D.Waller to DAL 26 for 22 yards (21-S.Gilmore).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 14 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 93%

    (1:10) 9-G.Gano 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:52) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to NYG 22, Center-44-T.Sieg. 20-E.Gray to NYG 29 for 7 yards (18-J.Tolbert).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (8:03) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at NYG 37 for 5 yards (7-T.Diggs).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 15 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to DAL 29, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 36 for 7 yards (59-C.Kreiter).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:57) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-44-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 26%

    (1:15) 8-D.Jones up the middle to NYG 48 for 1 yard (1-J.Kearse; 58-M.Smith).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 33%

    (:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 18-I.Hodgins (21-S.Gilmore). Penalty on NYG-78-A.Thomas, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:14) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to NYG 19, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-89-P.Hendershot.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 14 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:16) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Slayton [97-O.Odighizuwa].

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 76%

    (1:14) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Tolbert.