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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 26 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(:52) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to NYG 22, Center-44-T.Sieg. 20-E.Gray to NYG 29 for 7 yards (18-J.Tolbert).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +0.75 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 70, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 28, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model