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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 56

Dallas Cowboys 33 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-44-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.89 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 56, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model