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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 53

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 33

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 8-D.Jones up the middle to NYG 48 for 1 yard (1-J.Kearse; 58-M.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.73 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 53, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model