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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 50

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 33

What Actually Happened

(:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 18-I.Hodgins (21-S.Gilmore). Penalty on NYG-78-A.Thomas, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.06 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 50, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model