Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 62

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 40

(3:16) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 86-D.Slayton [97-O.Odighizuwa].

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.96 EP
71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 62, worth -2.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.61 EP