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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 40 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete deep left to 18-J.Tolbert.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.84 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP