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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 72

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 16

What Actually Happened

(:32) 6-J.Gillan punts 62 yards to DAL 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 20 for 10 yards (41-M.McFadden).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 30, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model