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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 68

Detroit Lions 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 3-J.Fox punts 61 yards to KC 7, Center-47-S.Daly. 17-R.James to KC 13 for 6 yards (30-K.Dorsey).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 26, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP