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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Thursday 2023-09-07 · 20:20 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

DET
43.0%
KC
57.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.167 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.275 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.243 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DET 24
–
KC 27
Projected margin: KC by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

DET

Emmanuel Moseley CB Out Knee

KC

Travis Kelce TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 21
–
KC 20

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:52 TD DET (2:52) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – KC 0
  • Q2 11:56 TD KC (11:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – KC 6
  • Q2 00:37 TD KC (:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 81-B.Bell for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 7 – KC 13
  • Q3 11:04 TD DET (11:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 19-K.Toney INTERCEPTED by 32-B.Branch at 50. 32-B.Branch for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – KC 14
  • Q3 02:14 FG KC (2:14) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. DET 14 – KC 17
  • Q4 12:16 FG KC (12:16) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. DET 14 – KC 20
  • Q4 07:11 TD DET (7:11) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – KC 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (14:21) 3-J.Fox punts 61 yards to KC 7, Center-47-S.Daly. 17-R.James to KC 13 for 6 yards (30-K.Dorsey).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (10:58) 5-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to DET 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 83
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66%

    (9:27) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-J.Reeves-Maybin. 42-J.Reeves-Maybin up the middle to DET 20 for 3 yards (6-B.Cook).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:54) 5-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to DET 41, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:13) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to KC 17, Center-47-S.Daly. 17-R.James to KC 18 for 1 yard (42-J.Reeves-Maybin, 30-K.Dorsey).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:01) 5-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to DET 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (11:52) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to KC 42, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 17-R.James.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (8:48) 5-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to DET 1, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-K.Raymond to DET 17 for 16 yards (27-C.Conner).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 57%

    (5:56) 3-J.Fox punts 30 yards to KC 10, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-25-W.Harris.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 94%

    (2:14) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (1:17) 3-J.Fox punts 44 yards to KC 23, Center-47-S.Daly. 17-R.James to KC 32 for 9 yards (30-K.Dorsey).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 91%

    (12:16) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (5:16) 5-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to DET 34, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-44-Ca.Jones.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 44%

    (2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 8-J.Reynolds (20-J.Reid).