Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 57

Detroit Lions 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(2:13) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to KC 17, Center-47-S.Daly. 17-R.James to KC 18 for 1 yard (42-J.Reeves-Maybin, 30-K.Dorsey).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.29 EP
60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model