Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Detroit Lions 7

(13:01) 5-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to DET 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.84 EP
59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model