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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 89

Detroit Lions 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to KC 42, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 17-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.57 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 89, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.75 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 46, worth -2.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP