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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 59

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 5-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to DET 1, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-K.Raymond to DET 17 for 16 yards (27-C.Conner).

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.40 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP