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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 40

Detroit Lions 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 3-J.Fox punts 30 yards to KC 10, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-25-W.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.54 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP