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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 21

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.77 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 31, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP