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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 69

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 5-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to DET 34, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-44-Ca.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 69, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 27, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model