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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 83

Detroit Lions 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(9:27) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-J.Reeves-Maybin. 42-J.Reeves-Maybin up the middle to DET 20 for 3 yards (6-B.Cook).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.31 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 83, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.42 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 41, worth -2.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model