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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 45

Detroit Lions 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 8-J.Reynolds (20-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.41 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -1.50 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model