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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 38

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 8-B.Maher 57 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-Ja.Reed), Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans, RECOVERED by SEA-30-M.Jackson at SEA 48. 30-M.Jackson to LA 42 for 10 yards (72-T.Anchrum).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.47 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model