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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2023-09-10 · 16:25 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

LA
46.1%
SEA
53.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SEA defense: +0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Geno Smith (SEA): -0.012 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA offense: -0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 23
–
SEA 24
Projected margin: SEA by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

LA

Stetson Bennett QB Questionable right Shoulder
Cooper Kupp WR Questionable Hamstring
Hunter Long TE Questionable Thigh

SEA

Jamal Adams S Out Knee
Kenny McIntosh RB Out Knee
Damien Lewis G Questionable Shoulder
Devon Witherspoon CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 30
–
SEA 13

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:56 FG SEA (9:56) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. LA 0 – SEA 3
  • Q1 00:42 TD LA (:42) (No Huddle) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – SEA 3
  • Q2 09:21 TD SEA (9:21) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 7 – SEA 9
  • Q2 04:22 FG SEA (4:22) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. LA 7 – SEA 13
  • Q3 09:01 TD LA (9:01) 23-K.Williams left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – SEA 13
  • Q3 02:43 FG LA (2:43) 8-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 17 – SEA 13
  • Q4 09:49 TD LA (9:49) 3-C.Akers left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – SEA 13
  • Q4 05:02 FG LA (5:02) 8-B.Maher 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 27 – SEA 13
  • Q4 00:15 FG LA (:15) 8-B.Maher 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 30 – SEA 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 16 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%

    (9:56) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 16 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:15) 42-E.Evans punts 45 yards to SEA 31, Center-47-A.Ward. 31-D.Dallas pushed ob at SEA 49 for 18 yards (18-B.Skowronek).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 89%

    (4:22) 5-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 62%

    (1:54) 8-B.Maher 57 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-Ja.Reed), Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans, RECOVERED by SEA-30-M.Jackson at SEA 48. 30-M.Jackson to LA 42 for 10 yards (72-T.Anchrum).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 91%

    (:36) 5-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (8:04) 4-M.Dickson punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (2:43) 8-B.Maher 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:12) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to LA 21, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (9:49) 3-C.Akers left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 73 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback. PENALTY on SEA, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at LA 20.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 69%

    (5:02) 8-B.Maher 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 85%

    (:15) 8-B.Maher 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.