4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 18

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 5-J.Myers 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.45 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model