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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 24 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 8-B.Maher 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.60 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model