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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 26

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(:15) 8-B.Maher 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +1.30 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model