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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 6 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(:01) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to NO 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 13 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.23 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model