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TEN Away

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2023-09-10 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

TEN
36.6%
NO
63.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NO offense: -0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TEN 19
–
NO 24
Projected margin: NO by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

TEN

Tre Avery CB Out Hamstring
Harold Landry LB Questionable Abdomen
Dillon Radunz T Questionable Knee

NO

J.T. Gray S Out Shoulder
Tre'Quan Smith WR Out Groin
Kendre Miller RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 15
–
NO 16

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:45 FG TEN (13:45) 6-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 3 – NO 0
  • Q1 10:21 FG NO (10:21) 19-B.Grupe 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. TEN 3 – NO 3
  • Q1 03:10 FG TEN (3:10) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 6 – NO 3
  • Q2 07:40 FG NO (7:40) 19-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. TEN 6 – NO 6
  • Q2 01:43 FG TEN (1:43) 6-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. Penalty on NO, Illegal Formation, declined. TEN 9 – NO 6
  • Q3 09:30 FG NO (9:30) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. TEN 9 – NO 9
  • Q3 01:28 TD NO (1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 22-R.Shaheed for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – NO 15
  • Q4 11:16 FG TEN (11:16) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 12 – NO 16
  • Q4 02:20 FG TEN (2:20) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 15 – NO 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 18 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 78%

    (13:45) 6-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (10:21) 19-B.Grupe 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (3:10) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 12 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:30) 39-L.Hedley punts 51 yards to TEN 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:01) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to NO 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 13 for no gain.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:54) 39-L.Hedley punts 52 yards to TEN 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-K.Jackson to TEN 23 for 11 yards (7-T.Hill, 52-D.Jackson).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:01) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 1 yard to TEN 28, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (7:40) 19-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 18 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:41) 39-L.Hedley punts 49 yards to TEN 18, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-K.Jackson to TEN 30 for 12 yards (52-D.Jackson; 49-Z.Wood).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (1:43) 6-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. Penalty on NO, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 74%

    (9:30) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 15 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:27) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 44 yards to NO 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 45 for 23 yards (56-M.Rice). PENALTY on NO-28-L.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 28.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:46) 39-L.Hedley punts 45 yards to TEN 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-K.Jackson to TEN 11 for no gain (28-L.Johnson).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 85%

    (11:16) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:51) 39-L.Hedley punts 44 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-K.Jackson to TEN 27 for 14 yards (27-I.Yiadom, 46-A.Prentice).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (2:20) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.