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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 13

Tennessee Titans 6 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 6-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. Penalty on NO, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.02 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 13, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model