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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 32

Tennessee Titans 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 6-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.00 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -2.13 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model