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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 34

New Orleans Saints 6 – Tennessee Titans 9

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.95 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP