Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 9 – New Orleans Saints 9

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 44 yards to NO 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at NO 45 for 23 yards (56-M.Rice). PENALTY on NO-28-L.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.70 EP
73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model