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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 27

Tennessee Titans 9 – New Orleans Saints 16

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.69 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model