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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 8

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 19-B.Grupe 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.56 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 8, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model