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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 9

Tennessee Titans 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.78 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 9, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP