Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 73

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

(13:31) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.22 EP
56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model