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2-0 HC John Harbaugh
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Cincinnati Bengals

0-2 HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2023-09-17 · 13:00 ET Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

BAL
31.3%
CIN
68.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.104 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BAL 18 11–25
–
CIN 24 17–31
Projected margin: CIN by 6 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

BAL

Marlon Humphrey CB Out Foot
Tyler Linderbaum C Out Ankle
Ronnie Stanley T Out Knee
Marcus Williams S Out Pectoral
Mark Andrews TE Questionable Quadricep

CIN

Markus Bailey LB Questionable Knee
Chris Evans RB Questionable Hamstring
Joseph Ossai DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 27
–
CIN 24

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:15 TD BAL (7:15) 77-D.Faalele reported in as eligible. 35-G.Edwards left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CIN 0
  • Q2 13:31 TD CIN (13:31) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – CIN 6
  • Q2 09:19 FG BAL (9:19) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 10 – CIN 7
  • Q2 03:05 FG CIN (3:05) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. BAL 10 – CIN 10
  • Q2 00:05 FG BAL (:05) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 13 – CIN 10
  • Q3 08:44 TD BAL (8:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 19 – CIN 10
  • Q3 02:38 TD CIN (2:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 5-T.Higgins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – CIN 16
  • Q4 11:42 TD BAL (11:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-N.Agholor for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 26 – CIN 17
  • Q4 03:32 TD CIN (3:32) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – CIN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:22) 10-B.Robbins punts 40 yards to BAL 33, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 55%

    (3:23) 9-J.Tucker 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 34%

    (1:18) 10-B.Robbins punts 39 yards to BAL 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:31) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 86%

    (9:19) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (3:05) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 19 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 90%

    (:05) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:50) 10-B.Robbins punts 41 yards to BAL 29, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 31 for 2 yards (49-J.Bachie; 26-T.Anderson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:47) 11-J.Stout punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 44%

    (5:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to BAL 36 for 9 yards (29-A.Washington).

    See the full breakdown →