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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 22

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(:05) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +3.56 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model