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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 45

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(5:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to BAL 36 for 9 yards (29-A.Washington).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.68 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model