Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(5:22) 10-B.Robbins punts 40 yards to BAL 33, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model