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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 41

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 9-J.Tucker 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.70 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model