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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 49

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 10-B.Robbins punts 39 yards to BAL 10, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.30 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model