Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 73

Chicago Bears 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

(9:29) 16-T.Gill punts 55 yards to TB 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 83-D.Thompkins pushed ob at TB 19 for 1 yard (31-Ja.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model