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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2023-09-17 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

CHI
35.0%
TB
65.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.146 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Baker Mayfield (TB) -0.130 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.173 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CHI 19
–
TB 24
Projected margin: TB by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

CHI

Nate Davis G Doubtful Not injury related - personal matter
Josh Blackwell CB Doubtful Hamstring

TB

Carlton Davis CB Out Toe
SirVocea Dennis LB Out Hamstring
Calijah Kancey DT Out Calf
Christian Izien S Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 17
–
TB 27

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:06 FG TB (9:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. CHI 0 – TB 3
  • Q1 06:23 TD CHI (6:23) 1-J.Fields scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – TB 3
  • Q2 10:58 TD TB (10:58) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – TB 9
  • Q2 02:00 FG CHI (2:00) 8-C.Santos 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. CHI 10 – TB 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG TB (:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. CHI 10 – TB 13
  • Q3 04:14 TD TB (4:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 10 – TB 19
  • Q4 06:23 TD CHI (6:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep middle to 10-C.Claypool for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – TB 20
  • Q4 02:12 TD TB (2:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short middle intended for 24-K.Herbert INTERCEPTED by 7-S.Barrett at CHI 4. 7-S.Barrett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 17 – TB 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (9:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 90%

    (14:56) 4-C.McLaughlin 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-R.Green), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda, recovered by TB-5-J.Camarda at 50.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:29) 16-T.Gill punts 55 yards to TB 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 83-D.Thompkins pushed ob at TB 19 for 1 yard (31-Ja.Jones).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (6:57) 5-J.Camarda punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 20 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 71%

    (2:00) 8-C.Santos 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 15 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:42) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to TB 21, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-12-V.Jones. PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 21.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 75%

    (6:20) 1-R.White right end pushed ob at CHI 28 for 4 yards (29-T.Stevenson).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:41) 16-T.Gill punts 34 yards to TB 20, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-20-T.Homer.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 55 yards to CHI 16, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:39) 16-T.Gill punts 49 yards to TB 35, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (10:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to CHI 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 48%

    (2:38) 5-J.Camarda punts 36 yards to CHI 7, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-38-D.Pitts.