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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 72

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 5-J.Camarda punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.64 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP